...And Down The Stretch They Come

It’s almost like a fairy tale twist, this ending to the Mets season:

You will enter the final two weeks of the regular season in contention for a wild card spot…but you will need to fight for that spot without your star player.

That’s where the Mets find themselves here with twelve games remaining.

Though they’ve played like they’re a one-star team most of the season, they do have other players capable of stepping up big-time.

Monday night it was Jose Iglesias and Starling Marte coming through with big hits.

And that’s how the Mets enter the final dozen games in sole possession of the third wild card spot.

Let’s take a look at how the rest of the season shakes out.

We’ve documented the Mets’ schedule before. They finish out their home schedule with two more against the Nationals, and then they have the Phillies for four this weekend. Next week the season wraps up with 3 games in Atlanta followed by 3 games in Milwaukee.

One would think that finishing the season 6-6 from this point forward - leaving the Mets 88-74 for the season - would be enough for a playoff spot. But of course, that all depends on what everyone else does.

To be honest, if I had to tell you right now which of the four teams misses out, I think it might be the Diamondbacks. They gave up 15 runs in a loss on Saturday and 10 runs in a (somewhat lucky) win on Sunday. They lost a starting pitcher to injury. They’ve now lost three out of four…but as we’ve seen throughout the season that all can change really quickly. Here’s how things stack up for Arizona, San Diego, and Atlanta the rest of the way.

Arizona (83-67, 1 game up)

@Colorado (2 games, after losing to Colorado Monday night)

@Milwaukee (4 games, the team that scored 15 and 10 runs on them over the weekend)

vs. San Francisco (3 games)

vs. San Diego (3 games)

San Diego (86-65, 3.5 games up)

vs. Houston (2 games, after beating the Astros Monday night)

vs. Chicago White Sox (3 games, providing the Padres with a clear schedule advantage here)

@Los Angeles Dodgers (3 games)

@Arizona (3 games)

Atlanta (81-69, 1 game back)

@Cincinnati (3 games…Atlanta lost to the Dodgers Monday night in the last game of their 4-game series)

@Miami (3 games)

vs. Mets (3 games)

vs. Royals (3 games)

Starting with the Mets: let’s say they win the rest of their series, and split with Philadelphia. 2-1 against Washington, 2-2 Philly, 2-1 Atlanta, and 2-1 Milwaukee. That’s 8-5, which would get them to 90 wins. I bet that’s enough for a wild card…which of course is helped by taking the series against Atlanta and winning the tiebreaker there.

Everyone is making a big deal out of the Mets’ schedule difficulty but I don’t see it as a big deal - first of all the Mets are good. They can handle tough teams. We saw that last weekend - they went toe -to-toe with the Phillies. That series had a “last team to hit wins” feel, and this weekend the Mets hit last. Secondly, in the playoffs they have to beat the good teams. So get it going early.

I think the Padres would have to have an epic collapse to end up out of the picture - even to fall out of the top wild card spot. So let’s assume they’re in. (But worth noting they have the Astros, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks to play, so a collapse is not out of the question.)

That San Diego-Arizona series is huge…but by then Arizona might fall out of the picture. Or it could come down to Arizona and Atlanta for the final spot.

If the Mets take care of business, they could very well end up as the second wild card. But to do that, especially without Francisco Lindor, they’re going to need huge contributions from the bats of players like Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo.

I have seen some tight at-bats down the stretch here. Nimmo keeps hitting the ball deep and just foul - he might be about to break out. Alonso and even Mark Vientos need to take a deep breath and hit like they’re capable of hitting - they have the ability to power this team to the post-season and take a lot of pressure off the Atlanta series. But I haven’t seen them have great at-bats yet.

If they can’t lead the Mets with their bats, as Monday night’s extra innings game with Washington proved - it’s going to be a tense couple of weeks.

Oh by the way, my dad and I took a tour of Citi Field on Saturday afternoon. If you’re a Mets fan and you haven’t signed up for Mets Connect yet - do it. Great rewards - hopefully it all carries over into next season. I’ve already gotten some free concession items at my last Citi Field visit and this tour was from cashing in points.

I have to say the PNC Park tour in Pittsburgh was pretty outstanding - we walked through the clubhouse there. This one is a close second - no clubhouse, but we got on the field. (That’s me in the Carlos Mendoza dugout steps post at the top of the post, and me updating the media in the press room pictured below.)

(And might as well throw another reminder here that on November 3 I’ll be running the New York City Marathon for the Safe At Home Foundation. If you’d like to make a donation to help me meet my fundraising goal you can do so at this link. Thank you. It’s getting close!)

Let’s Go Mets.