I am usually an optimistic Mets fan.

Even in a year where there are no expectations, I have a route mapped out to show how they can prove everyone wrong and make a magical run.

When it works out it’s a great feeling - that’s part of what made last year so special.

But when it doesn’t…well, it kind of compounds the disappointment.

So that’s why this is such an unusual Mets prediction for me, as we sit at the dawn of the 2025 Major League Baseball season.

Especially for a season where everyone is expecting the Mets to be one of the best teams in baseball.

I do not have high expectations for this Mets team.

I don’t know. Maybe that’s too harsh.

But I think maybe the way to put it is that I am neutral on this upcoming season.

I think the Mets will be fine.

But I fear they will not make the kind of run they made last year…and maybe they’ll even fall short of the playoffs.

That might be a reflection on them…or it might be a reflection on just how good the rest of their division is and how improved some other teams (Giants, Reds, Nationals) are likely to be.

It is very hard to get to the playoffs…the NLCS…to the World Series. I am not going into this season expecting that.

I have full confidence that the Mets will be fun to watch - Juan Soto is going to be great. Francisco Lindor will be healthy again, which he was not late last season. I expect Pete Alonso to have the big season he should have had last year. I think Clay Holmes as a starting pitcher is going to be a revelation, and I was so impressed by late-season David Peterson and I’m excited to see him pitch an entire season like that.

I trust Carlos Mendoza and David Stearns (and Steve Cohen, to an extent) to make the right moves and keep the team relevant for years to come.

But I expect guys are going to get hurt - a la Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, and Francisco Alvarez, major injuries all before spring training was over - because the team played so deep into last season. (The Yankees are dealing with similar issues after their World Series run. It happens.) That Francisco Alvarez injury is the one that most concerns me - he was out when they were bad last year and they got good when he came back. They can’t afford that again this year.

I think there will be slow patches, maybe even at the start of the season, and everyone is going to say, “Remember what this team did in 2024!” and that just won’t happen again.

Because that type of thing doesn’t happen all that often.

I would love to be wrong. Maybe the Mets are building themselves into a team that doesn’t have slowdowns after success. Maybe they can sustain a winning environment.

But they have to prove it to me first, I guess.

I’ll be watching all the games. It’s what I do.

I’ll still believe. It’s what I do.

But my brain is telling me not to go too hard. Just yet, at least.

And I guess they bought themselves this kind of a year I’m expecting because last year was so fun.

Or maybe I can’t bring myself to believe they’ll have another year that fun because I won’t be going to 15-plus games like I did last year.

Either way, I hope to be writing something in October about how wrong I had it.